Ghost Ship sold out

[rolanni]

Baen has confirmed that the hardcover edition of Ghost Ship has sold out.  This means that — the stock that’s now in stores?  Is all that’s left.

If you were thinking about giving the gift of Ghost Ship for Christmas, you might want to be buying that now.

Mr. Blyly tells us that Uncle Hugo’s has about 70 signed copies of Ghost Ship in hand.

Ms. Nagle at Constellation Books says she has 2 copies of Ghost Ship on the shelf.

Any other indies within the sound of my voice have Ghost Ship on the shelf?  Sing out and I’ll add you to the list!

 

Originally published at Sharon Lee, Writer. You can comment here or there.

Comments

[(Anonymous)]

I have 2 at Constellation Books.
Lauretta
PS Dang, Theo!! You go, girl!

[rolanni.livejournal.com]

You're on the list!

[(Anonymous)]

Congratulations!

-Susan

[rolanni.livejournal.com]

Thank you!

Congratulations

[(Anonymous)]

Since GHOST SHIP has officially sold out does this mean that when the next royalty period in the Spring of 2012 rolls around GHOST SHIP will also have officially earned out? I mean one presumes that they at least start with an initial print run high enough to allow the book to earn out if it sells out. And does this mean it will now go into a second printing?

You and Steve certainly deserve this swift validation of the worth of your story crafting and telling expertise. Congratulations to you both.

Anne in Virginia

Re: Congratulations

[rolanni.livejournal.com]

does this mean that when the next royalty period in the Spring of 2012 rolls around GHOST SHIP will also have officially earned out?

Nope, it'll have sold out, not necessarily earned out. Earning out depends on how many books were printed -- and we don't know that. I'm not sure it's a given that the first print run will cover the advance, if it sells out. We used to earn out our advance with the Meisha Merlin print-to-order hardcovers, but that's not how Baen does bidness.

Another variable is the number of electronic sales. As you'll recall, Mouse and Dragon earned out in a single royalty period -- but it was the electronic sales that made the difference there.

Baen has not said, but there are apparently good bookselling reasons why Baen might not choose to go to a second printing of the hardcover. We did just hear from Madame the Editor that the mass market of Ghost Ship is scheduled for August.


Congratulations to you both.

Thank you.

Re: Congratulations

[rolanni.livejournal.com]

Whist. We have now passed into country where I hold no power. Complaints must be addressed to Management:
infoATbaenDOTcom attention Ms. Weisskopf

Re: Congratulations

[johnhawkinson.livejournal.com]

Well, yikes. Until I saw the infodumpling, I had assumed, as is generally the case, that selling out of a hardcover printing was A Good Thing. And indeed, normally, in Publishing, one would expect that a sellout hardcover with 9 months until the mass-market date would generate a reprint. But there appears speculation that that is not the case (of course, I hadn't been following these comments).

Now, we all know that Publishing is in rather bad straights this year, see Kris Rusch's blog entry, Third Quarter Blues (http://kriswrites.com/2011/07/20/the-business-rusch-third-quarter-blues/).

So it's hard not to draw the conclusion that Baen (like everyone) reduced their print runs, and they reduced Ghost Ship too far (if they won't reprint). So that means that instead of being a Good Thing that Ghost Ship sold out, it's kind of a bad thing that it was under-projected. The manufacturer costing per-book is going to have been higher than it would otherwise have been had they predicted demand more accurately, and so the publisher's profit on Lee and Miller books will be lower (presumably it will not effect the paid royalty rate). (Of course, it's still a Good Thing that it sold out, given the number of copies printed, of course you want them to sell out. Less supply means more demand and high demand is good for a producer.)

To me, there are then questions for J.J. and contract-land. Is Baen required to keep the hardcover in print for a reasonable time(?), and if not, well, perhaps that's a clause that would be added to more contracts if authors had any real negotiating power...[not really expecting a public answer on that one].

If the belief is that another reprint would not be cost-effective (either for Ghost Ship in specific, or for Baen's reputation -- no publisher wants the public to think they cannot meet demand for their product -- or do they? Perhaps knowledge that first edition hardcover print runs will sell out without reprint is intended to incentivize bookstore buyers to buy early and often. If so, and if that is effective, then this sort of thing will continue and that's all the more reason that contractual provisions might be important), then the obvious remedy would be to move up the mass-market date.

I assume that is not really practical. Simon and Schuster has already issued catalogs for Spring 2012 and those books have got to mostly have been bought. Moving a title up from Summer 2012 to Spring 2012 would just hurt the title's advance sales. As well as narrowing the expected hardcover window for other hardcovers that did not sell out.

What a pickle! Hopefully we're "wrong" and it makes good economic and business sense for Baen/S&S to go back to press on the title.

I've gotta wonder -- what's the smallest reprint run of a hardcover title that makes economic sense?

Re: Congratulations

[rolanni.livejournal.com]

Well...it is good to sell through. From my perspective, it kinda sucks that the print run sold out before Christmas. OTOH, I'd rather sell through than not.

Regarding the knotty question of doing a hardcover reprint, alicebentley gives the benefit of her experience (lifted from her reply to me at Facebook):

For the vast majority of books, the quantity you can sell in hardcover drops as a function of time since publication. Selling through pre-pub or within a week or so of publication would (might) justify reprinting, but selling through at three months just shows that you made a very good guess on how many to print.
We are also still well within the returns window for Ghost Ship, which means that it may be out-of-stock at Baen, but nothing says that B&N doesn't have them sitting in a warehouse somewhere, to ship back for full credit after the holidays. Or, as has happened more than once, to just pulp and demand a credit be issued.

To put a scale on that "time since publication", sales velocity tends to be highest the week of release, with the potential for minor bumps up due to reviews or special events, but a retailer will commonly see almost all of their hardcover sales on a new title within four weeks of issue.

Me, again. The Publisher is not contractually obligated to keep the hardcover edition (if any) or the softcover edition in print for any amount of time at all. I've heard it said that some houses do a small hardcover run as a "favor" to their author, and don't expect the run to sell out. I'd sort of be surprised if that was Baen's thinking on the matter -- Toni strikes me as hard-headed and practical woman -- but I expect that experience has taught them how many hardcovers the market will bear.

Now, Saltation did go back to print as a hardcover -- it sold out in weeks, not months. I think that was because Baen had underestimated how many Liaden readers who were already going to get their "thank you" book, bought a second copy through normal bookstore channels, as a matter of course.

It does make economic sense for a publisher to control its costs. If a hardcover sell-out equaled an earn-out, then a publisher would owe money on a book during its first royalty period. If, on the other hand, sell-out means sell-through (good), and a whack off the advance owed (good), but the book won't actually earn out until the paperback is ushered on-stage, the publisher can put off writing a check on that book's earnings for a year or 18 months.

There is also some value in cultivating a pent-up demand for the mass market, when it appears.

And in all of this, we have to remember that there are still copies of Ghost Ship out in the distribution channels. It's sold out at the S&S warehouse. There are, obviously, still copies in Amazon's warehouse, and in BN's warehouse. We focused on the indie stores in the InfoDumpling because we want them to sell their copies. The indie stores have supported us in thick and thin, and we're returnign the favor. People who shop at BN and Amazon will shop there, anyway.

Re: Congratulations

[(Anonymous)]

But...but...if the first harcover edition is sold out with perhaps no second printing and the mass market paperback isn't going to be available until August 2012, that's a looong time with no access to the book. I should think good business sense would dictate either a second printing or a much earlier release of the paperback. And when DRAGON SHIP is released that will also spur interest in previous titles of the series. An available backlist is good marketing. But of course you and Steve know this full well. Let's hope BAEN's marketing boffins know, and are sensibly prepared to act on it too.

Anne in Virginia

Dragon Ship?

[claire774.livejournal.com]

Congrats on the selling out of Ghost Ship. Presumably it will be coming out in paperback sometime soonish so folks can still buy it.

And....so when is Dragon Ship coming out already?
C.